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Survivors of market disasters: In this disaster, some people actually made money

There is no need to repeat the tragic market. Various historical figures are present, and they all reveal a signal: this disaster is like an earthquake with no warning signs. The victims are everywhere, and the survival is a fluke.
But in this disaster, there are still people who make money.
If you still have the impression, on August 23 of last year, there was a problem with Amazon AWS 'server in Japan, which caused the products using the region's services to be affected to varying degrees, including the cryptocurrency trading platform. After discovering a problem with Binance using AWS, the user's deposit and withdrawal were suspended, but the trading platform using the Binance Quotation API failed to take timely measures, resulting in loopholes in market makers' strategies.
That day, while Bitcoin was still steadily maintained at 10,000 USD, some users bought Bitcoin at a unit price of 0.32 USD, and when there was almost no fluctuation in the market, they used the mistake of the server to add western food for the night. A bottle of champagne.
In this disaster after 5 months, some people still use the environment to find a way to survive.
Ethereum 0 dollar purchase?
A $ 0 purchase of Ethereum happened on March 13. The market plummeted, many mortgagors' positions were exploded, and ETH fell from $ 180 to less than $ 100 without resistance. The decentralized Defi market that depends on the value of ETH is naturally not immune, such as the MakerDAO platform. MakerDAO's borrowing logic is that users over-collateralize ETH to lend USD stablecoin DAI, but when the value of ETH fell rapidly, a large number of loans fell below the threshold and the system had to be liquidated. In other words, the user's loan was not repaid. Mortgage of ETH is also not available.
So MakerDAO has a bad debt, the amount exceeds USD 4 million. In order to repay this bad debt, MakerDAO chooses to auction the collateral, that is, ETH, BAT, etc., and uses the stable currency DAI to bid. They need to use the auction proceeds to obtain repay loan.
Under normal circumstances, such auctions are not too accidental. The feeding system reports the current price of ETH, and the bidders will probably trade at a price slightly lower than the market price.
However, the background of this auction is the market's plunge. The transaction caused investors to intensive operations, which blocked the Ethereum network. It takes far more than usual gas fees to allow the miners to confirm the transfer as soon as possible.
According to the browser, on the morning of the 13th, if only 44 gwei is used, the transfer confirmation time on the Ethereum network will take 72958 seconds, which is 20 hours.
The MakerDAO debt auction on the Ethereum network has also been affected. The blockage of the network has prevented bidders with low gas costs from bidding in time, which caused participants to bid 0 DAI / ETH to drop the hammer.
It can also be seen from the transaction records that the auction of 0 DAI was indeed successful. These lucky bidders only paid a transfer fee of US $ 1 and transferred 0 amount to obtain an ETH worth US $ 122 at the time.
These people are undoubtedly fortunate. The external environment helped them to become the only game participants. The exchange of $ 1 for $ 120 and a profit of 11900% was much higher than the odds of players who risked bottom-swinging in fluctuations.
However, from another perspective, MakerDAO's auction is to use the DAI obtained from the auction to pay off debts. However, due to network congestion, this situation has caused several free gifts, and MakerDAO's debt repayment is even worse.
Pick up goods by luck
If it is said that MakerDAO launches the auction, it is a helpless action of the team under extreme conditions. Bidders still need a bit of technical barriers to participate, but there is nothing to worry about, and there is almost no difficulty and cost.
On the evening of March 12, investors discovered that the LINK / USDT trading pair of the Binance trading platform experienced a short-term flash collapse and once fell to the bottom 0.0001 USD. What's going on?
Twitter netizens then asked Zhao Changpeng about the matter, and the latter's response was a shock. It turned out that someone had already launched the LINK trading pair as early as Binance, that is, on January 16 last year, a low was hung within 8 seconds after the real-time trading was opened. Price list, but it has not been closed because no fool will sell it at this price.
Unexpectedly, more than a year later, this pending order was sold "strangely". "At that time we had no price range restrictions. We will not cancel user orders." Zhao Changpeng said that the platform will not deny this order because the operation is completely reasonable.
It will not be rolled back for various reasons. In other words, even if LINK has experienced a large decline recently, at the current price of 2.3 US dollars, the profit of this transaction will exceed 2 million US dollars. US dollars, then he instantly won nearly 5 million US dollars.
The cost of 100 dollars, the income of 2.4 million dollars, a real profit.
In fact, similar examples of this kind of luck are not rare in the crypto industry. Except for Binance and the previous examples, BitMex and OKEx have also experienced similar situations, and more than once.
For example, on December 6, 2017, Binance's XRP / BTC trading pair experienced a breakdown of the list. In a very short period of time, the XRP price was oversold to 0.0000002 BTC, which is basically negligible. On January 29, 2018, the price of the ADA contract on BitMEX also fell to 0.00000005 US dollars, which was also nearly 0; another trading platform, OKEx, also saw a large amount of 0.002 USD on January 14, 2018. Case, according to the official statement at that time, "a certain trader" quickly sold a large amount of ETH through market orders within 12 minutes. Interestingly, at the time, some people analyzed that "a certain trader" was actually an official market-making robot, and "a large amount" of 100 million Ethereum was eventually sold for 20 dollars.
However, for ordinary people, if you want to encounter this kind of opportunity for leak detection, unless you are bored and place an order in advance, such a price is fleeting, and you ca n’t seize the opportunity simply by hand speed. In fact, at present, many trading platforms have actually adopted corresponding price amplitude filters, which specify the maximum / minimum price range of pending order prices. Oolong trading is very rare. Even if luck hits and catches up, it is very likely that the platform will intervene and the transaction will be rolled back. This situation has not happened before.
Only this time, the trader who had placed an order on Binance for more than a year, even if he successfully leaked and successfully withdrew the coin, it can only be said that he hit the Grand Canal.
Safe moving of bricks
Buying a certain kind of token on a crypto trading platform, and then selling the token to another trading platform, earning the price difference is a moving brick in the crypto circle. Moving bricks has been an arbitrage behavior since the birth of the transaction. It belongs to a very old business. Arthur, the founder of BitMex, who now operates a trading platform, and Xu Mingxing of OKEx, were once members of the army of moving bricks. . This kind of brick moving was the most prosperous at the end of 2017. At that time, trading platforms such as Bithumb in South Korea also called the "Kimchi premium" due to the price difference between other platforms. Moving bricks is a kind of risk-free arbitrage. Players use energy to gain profits, although the single profit is not much. However, with the maturity of trading robots and quantitative trading teams, the spread of tokens between multiple regions or platforms is often wiped out in a matter of seconds. Therefore, the profit margin of manually moving bricks is now very small.
Of course, it is not to say that there is no opportunity. Such an opportunity to make money is indeed hidden under the volatile market.
"Buy at a low price and sell at a high price, this is simply the most secure way to make money in a plunging market!" Investors are excited about cryptography. Starting at 6:30 pm on March 12, cryptocurrencies have experienced sharp fluctuations, while Binance and Huobi When the bitcoin spread between the three trading platforms and OKEx was the largest, it even reached more than 700 US dollars. The discerning player quickly discovered the opportunity, "For half an hour, I made more than 10,000 with a principal of 20,000 yuan. Such an opportunity is usually not available."
Buy and sell orders executed by the above investors at almost the same time, with a spread of nearly $ 450
When it comes to moving bricks, time is money. It is definitely too late to shuttle between multiple trading platforms. Many investors have now transferred the "battlefield" to the platform that focuses on aggregated trading. "The aggregated trading platform integrates the depth of multiple platforms. As long as there is a price difference between supported platforms, users only use One account can be bought and sold on multiple platforms, and it can be operated in a few seconds. "Wu Ling, who seized the opportunity from the extreme market in these two days, made nearly 50,000 by moving bricks in just a few hours. Yuan, the principal is no more than tens of thousands of yuan.
It is understood that there are already multiple platforms targeting the aggregate trading business on the market, and the opportunity to move bricks does not often appear, unless similar to the extreme market appearing in the past few days, or some unique tokens, there may be soaring and plunging. Opportunities, as a whole, are not met a few times a year, and they are fleeting.
However, whether it is MakerDAO auctions, ultra-low-priced pending order transactions, or arbitrage moving bricks under the new situation, these opportunities to make money are actually small probability and cannot be used as conventional investment methods.
These seemingly easy profits are in the end a few people. Many people are trapped in extreme quotes in stuns. Most investors have no assets left on the trading platform overnight.
Maybe this also makes many investors lose confidence in the industry, but in fact, in the face of such a market, after finishing our mood, we are more learning from changes.
Learn the reasons for this disaster, learn the logic of the main control panel, learn what signals were ignored before the disaster, and prepare for the next time. At the same time, we can also see the development of the industry. For example, when all centralized trading platforms are down, DEX can still be implemented despite various problems.
I hope that everyone still has confidence in the blockchain and cryptocurrency industries. Finally, I would like to remind everyone that the recent market changes are unpredictable. Please pay attention to risks and exercise caution.
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After the Bitcoin crash: do others fear me for greed?

At 6:30 pm on March 12, Bitcoin dropped from $ 7211 to $ 5555.55. The bitcoin price dived again this morning, slumping nearly $ 2,000 again in half an hour, the lowest fell to $ 3,782.13, a drop of more than 40% in 24 hours. According to the data of the contract emperor, only Huobi, OKEx, Binance, and BitMEX exchanges had a daily short position of 3.133 billion US dollars, which reached the highest in a single day in history. The number of liquidated positions exceeded 110,000, which was also the highest in a single day.
Also on March 12, the S & P index fell 260.74 points, triggering the fusing mechanism for the second time this week. The Dow hit its largest decline in history, at 2352.6 points. The Nasdaq fell 750.25 points to 7201.8 points. This is the third time in the history of US stocks. This fuse has been 33 years since the first fuse, but only 4 days have passed since the last fuse. Buffett shouted, "I only lived this way in 89 years." It is reported that Buffett lost $ 6.8 billion last night.
According to incomplete statistics, with the exception of the United States, the stock markets of 11 countries including Canada, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, the Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil, and Pakistan plummeted. The five largest US technology companies, Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft, had a cumulative market value of $ 416.63 billion. The Bloomberg Billionaires Index shows that the top 15 richest people in the world lost a total of $ 46.4 billion.
Market panic or pullback demand? Regarding the meltdown of U.S. stocks this week, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that the spread of the epidemic is not the main reason. It is more a decade of bull market for U.S. stocks. Some factors driving the rise of U.S. stocks are quietly changing, such as the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate There is not much space. Regarding this crazy drop in Bitcoin, Apocalypse Capital told InfoQ that there are two main reasons for this drop in Bitcoin: on the one hand, the bearish demand caused by the expected global economic downturn, and on the other hand, Bitcoin Callback requirements themselves.
As we all know, Bitcoin will be halved in the second half of the year, but the trading market pays attention to speculation expectations. This round of rise has essentially halved the market. After hitting a high of 10500, Bitcoin is facing a callback demand. Of course, this round of downtrends is so rapid and there are only a handful of recurrences in the history of Bitcoin, which are inextricably linked to the decline in global stock markets, both of which are the result of expectations of a bearish global economy.
However, Johnson Xu, chief analyst of TokenInsight, told InfoQ that the Bitcoin dip was mainly due to market panic, because some market participants bought bitcoins by buying mining machines, borrowing, etc., and expected to reduce their expectations by half. A linkage effect caused by everyone being too optimistic about the market.
The market is overhyped because Bitcoin is halved, and some market participants are afraid to miss the opportunity to enter the market irrationally. The current market slump is driven by strong irrational behavior, which translates into a rapid downside response and quickly depletes market buyers' liquidity (flattening down). When the overall financial market panic or other unexpected events are caused by the New Crown virus and the global economic slowdown, market participants often seek to withdraw assets such as stocks and bitcoins and convert these assets into cash (cash is king). So has the recent gold sell-off.
When the market panics, people ask for cash in the beginning instead of investing in safe-haven assets such as gold. At the same time, because gold is considered a high-quality asset, investors usually start with liquidity crunch and market panic. Cash in on good assets (because inferior assets are more difficult to sell in panic times). The Bitcoin crash this time has a certain connection with the decline in global stock markets, because the entire financial market is a globalized market, and there is more or less linkage between each asset.
In addition, Forbes speculated that it may be because PlusToken scammers transferred bitcoins worth more than 100 million US dollars to the mixer, and then sold bitcoins, resulting in rising market supply.

Other people are greedy, I am afraid, others are afraid of me, greedy? In this case, should investors still expect "halving the market"? Johnson Xu believes that there is no such thing as a "half quotation", and most market participants are too optimistic about the halving of Bitcoin. Price fluctuations are not necessarily caused by halving, but may be caused by the sum of other factors. When everyone is saying that they are optimistic about the market, the existence of risk is ignored in the subconscious. At this time, the risk will be actually reflected, and the upside will gradually shrink. Bitcoin halving was written into the code, and it was not an accident. Bitcoin should be halved in a rational way. It is worth looking forward to, but not overly interpreting and speculation.
However, Tianqi Capital believes that this plunge is a callback period for bitcoin's halving of the market, and each round of sharp decline also indicates the opportunity of the market outlook: cheap chips will be hoarded, waiting for the next wave of hype and explosion. Therefore, Tianqi Capital still believes that the market outlook of Bitcoin is worth looking forward to, provided that it is not frightened by the current fierce washing of the chips, after all, when the bear market is the worst, it is also when gold is everywhere.
Regarding the future trend of Bitcoin, Apocalypse Capital stated that it should judge according to the current trend.
In this round of market, Apocalypse Capital initially chose to follow the downward trend of May 18, and Bitcoin has gradually dropped from a high of 10,000 to 3150 points, so the big support level predicted by this round happens to be 3700 today. Near the point. Data monitoring shows that some funds are involved in this price range. But whether it can hold on to this support remains to be tested. If the 3700 support cannot be maintained, it is very likely that it will hit the US $ 2000 level. Tianqi Capital believes that this is the market's last line of defense. Long-term investment is recommended to buy some relatively stable targets, such as BTC, ETH, etc. The bear market will eliminate many currencies, but if it survives, it will shine in the next round.
Johnson Xu believes that the plunge is also a test to promote the healthy development of the industry. Extreme market is a test for the entire industry, especially for infrastructure, risk management, etc., so it is still optimistic and supports the development of the industry for a long time.
For current investors, Johnson Xu offers the following suggestions:
  1. Other people are greedy, I am afraid, others are afraid of me, greedy.
  2. Global financial markets have also undergone major changes. From the data point of view, I don't think Bitcoin has the attributes of a safe-haven asset, but this market can test whether Bitcoin has a certain risk-avoidance capability. This is a global world. We need to analyze various markets, not just the digital asset market.
  3. In the long run, we are still optimistic about the digital asset industry.
Does Bitcoin have a fusing mechanism? On March 9, after the U.S. stock market crash triggered the fusing mechanism, the market began a discussion of "whether Bitcoin should set up a fusing mechanism". But at present, most people are not optimistic about the Bitcoin fusing mechanism. OKEx CEO Jay Hao said that the fusing mechanism is difficult to implement in the digital currency market. In the face of a highly volatile market, setting the fuse point is a difficult problem. At the same time, for a 7 * 24h market, when a certain exchange breaks down, the price difference between the digital currencies between the platforms will increase, leading to arbitrage, and the fuse mechanism will eventually become a decoration.
Du Wan, the co-founder of Contract Emperor, also said that it is unrealistic to use a fuse mechanism in the currency circle. The fusing mechanism first violates the original intention of the decentralization of the blockchain, and at the same time, it will touch the interests of the top of the currency circle ecological chain. For example, large trading teams can no longer use pins to obtain large profits. When the market is panic, exchanges with a fuse mechanism may lose traffic to exchanges without a fuse mechanism because of the run effect of traders.
It can be seen that the current risk aversion measures in the traditional stock market are difficult to transfer to the fickle currency market in a short time, and the regulation of this market still has a long way to go. Investors should still be cautious when investing.
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